https://www.worldometers.info/ world-population/ Theory and Method in Demography SOST30012 Live lecture (1) 11/02/2022 Course Director: Mark Brown Other Lecturers: Kati Morosow, Tina Hannemman Teaching Assistants: Andrea Castro and Xinyi Kou Social Statistics 2 Course in an equation 3 What is Demography Scientific study of human populations: their structure and the way they change Course is quite applied – a focus on learning practical methods used to analyse population data – lots of hands-on work with real data But method set within theoretical context 4 Theory and practice… A typical week 5 Video lectures Reading Live lecture Practical Workshop DOES DEMOGRAPHY MATTER 6 7 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/07 /africa-birth-control-global-population-crisis https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/mar/22/collapse- civilisation-near-certain-decades-population-bomb-paul-ehrlich Population growth Ageing populations 8 Brasil 1970 > 2020 > 2070 9 https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/#/country COUNTRY_YEAR=2022 Challenges of aging populations 10 https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies- politics/article/2155366/chinas-ageing- population-problem-worsens-birth-and 11 https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/london- faces-social-care-time-bomb-ageing-migrant- workers-a4501601.html https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-budget- is-more-proof-that-britain-is-turning-into-an- elderly-care-system-with-a-state-attached- 3r6xkfhmq CHALLENGES OF AGING POPULATIONS 12https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/jan/27 /women-child-free-30-ons A collapsing birth rate https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/17/chin as-birth-rate-drops-to-record-low Migration 13 https://www.euronews.com/2021/12/30/a-year-since-brexit- how-bad-are-the-uk-s-labour-shortages-now Mass Migration 14 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58283177 https://www.theguardian.com/global- development/2015/jul/09/syria-refugees-4-million- people-flee-crisis-deepens Challenges of demographic change Operate at all spatial scales: Global ; UK ; Local At national and local level, population size and structure directly influences demand for services in a range of policy areas – e.g. housing, education, social security, health ‘Applied’ demography: – Helps policy makers, service providers and planners to quantify that need AND predict future developments in need – providing essential information for allocation of resources e.g how many school places needed in 5 years time how many houses needed and where to build them 15 16 What about the relationship BETWEEN population STRUCTURE and demographic EVENTS 17 Population Structure and components of change (VIDEO LECTURE 1.2) Population Structure Demographic Events a 2-way relationship Structure affects events: risk of a birth, death or migration varies by age & sex Events determine structure: age-sex structure is itself the result of previous trends in demographic events 18 19 Mortality Migration Fertility Population Structure and components of change (VIDEO LECTURE 1.2) Population Structure Demographic Events a 2-way relationship Structure affects events: risk of a birth, death or migration varies by age & sex Events determine structure: age-sex structure is itself the result of previous trends in demographic events 20 Reading a Population Pyramid Think of an age-sex pyramid simply as the function of previous patterns of fertility, migration and mortality e.g. the length of the bar for men aged 50 is determined by: births 50 years previously depleted by deaths + or – migrants 21 The importance of scale But what about variation at the sub-national level 22 The UK Population 23 Manchester Torbay Westminster Milton Keynes Which is Which UK 43 21 Workshop this week Constructing a series of demographic measures for a country of choice Population pyramids Age Sex ratios Dependency ratios Rates of natural increase What’s involved Step 1 Sourcing the data Step 2 Calculating and interpreting the measures 24 Assessment Coursework (30% of final mark): 1500 word report based on your own analysis of data. (using techniques and measures learned through the practical exercises) Submission deadline: Thursday April 26th Examination: Open Book (70% of final mark) Structured questions (with choice) Formative exercises – weekly practical exercise, past paper questions, quizzes 25 Reading 26 Help and support Workshops: chance for you to ask questions Discussion Board: questions on any aspect of the course. Quicker response than emails Everyone benefits from the question and answer Office hours – See Blackboard for our office hours. For help on a specific topic, we encourage you to approach the lecturer responsible for that bit of the course e.g. me for fertility, Tina for mortality, Kati for migration etc 27
